Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3811 STL 05:49 → BWI 09:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1254 STL 16:35 → BWI 19:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3811 Southwest	STL 05:49	BWI 09:00	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3812 Southwest	STL 08:09	BWI 11:23	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3813 Southwest	STL 13:26	BWI 16:35	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1254 Southwest	STL 16:35	BWI 19:46	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON