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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Charleston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107 5h 00m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381 5h 29m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179 5h 34m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:40 → ATL 19:25DL 543 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850 6h 46m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:59 → CHS 17:16DL 2174 5h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 12:34 → CHS 16:18DL 2463 6h 29m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 19:33 → CHS 20:49DL 2493 6h 27m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → STL 13:35 → CLT 16:29AA 3096 3h 29m Charlotte CLT 19:58 → CHS 21:12AA 3064 6h 37m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 53m Chicago ORD 10:28 → CHS 13:43UA 2631 4h 43m 65% 57%
UnitedDetails → STL 12:55 → IAD 16:07UA 4454 · flown by GoJet 1h 08m Dulles IAD 17:15 → CHS 19:07UA 4310 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 12m 74% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON