Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 2420 at 13:55, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2420 Southwest	STL 13:55	ECP 15:45	15%	5%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 48m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	4h 30m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → ECP 19:10DL 3053	5h 48m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	5h 21m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 18:58 → ATL 21:44DL 1393	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	4h 39m	96%	84%
American Details →	STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → ECP 11:41AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	6h 09m	99%	82%
American Details →	STL 07:07 → DFW 09:06AA 537	3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:19 → ECP 14:28AA 2052	7h 21m	99%	78%
American Details →	STL 06:31 → CLT 09:32AA 1515	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 10:54 → ECP 11:37AA 5262 · flown by PSA	5h 06m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON