tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2812 Southwest STL 10:20 JAX 13:27 11% 2% 2.1% no record
WN 3071 Southwest STL 10:15 JAX 13:19 11% 2% 2.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 2h 09m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 6h 08m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 26m Minneapolis MSP 10:22 → JAX 14:10DL 2392 6h 49m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923 5h 00m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:40 → ATL 19:25DL 543 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276 6h 29m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:18 → MIA 09:15AA 1716 2h 45m Miami MIA 12:00 → JAX 13:24AA 3955 · flown by Envoy 7h 06m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024 5h 37m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:38 → JAX 13:10AA 2329 6h 38m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:31 → CLT 09:32AA 1515 1h 16m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → JAX 12:25AA 1925 4h 54m 94% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON