Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: DL 487 at 12:44, 18%.

Safest bet that day DL 487 TPA 12:44 → AUS 14:26 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest OO 3508 TPA 19:57 → AUS 21:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 487 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:44	AUS 14:26	18%	4%	1.9%	83%
WN 3907 Southwest	TPA 16:15	AUS 17:47	20%	6%	1.8%	no record
OO 3508 SkyWest	TPA 19:57	AUS 21:40	21%	8%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON