Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2307 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2307 TPA 07:45 → BNA 08:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3639 TPA 18:00 → BNA 19:06 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2307 Southwest	TPA 07:45	BNA 08:46	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3908 Southwest	TPA 09:57	BNA 10:53	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3909 Southwest	TPA 11:50	BNA 12:43	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3642 Envoy	TPA 12:38	BNA 13:45	18%	5%	1.9%	no record
WN 2186 Southwest	TPA 16:10	BNA 17:03	22%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 4050 Southwest	TPA 19:09	BNA 19:58	23%	9%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3639 Envoy	TPA 18:00	BNA 19:06	26%	8%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON