Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2385 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2385 TPA 06:47 → DCA 09:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1944 TPA 19:26 → DCA 21:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2385 American Flight history →	TPA 06:47	DCA 09:11	6%	3%	1.3%	100%
WN 3930 Southwest	TPA 10:04	DCA 12:17	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 1972 American	TPA 11:51	DCA 14:14	15%	5%	1.9%	no record
AA 1990 American	TPA 13:14	DCA 15:38	17%	5%	2.1%	no record
WN 3196 Southwest	TPA 14:52	DCA 17:05	18%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 1944 American Flight history →	TPA 19:26	DCA 21:52	24%	10%	3.2%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON