Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1812 at 07:59 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1812 TPA 07:59 → DEN 10:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3933 TPA 17:49 → DEN 19:41 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1812 United	TPA 07:59	DEN 10:09	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 1113 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 06:12	DEN 08:12	7%	2%	1.2%	85%
UA 683 United Flight history →	TPA 12:21	DEN 14:14	11%	4%	0.9%	87%
WN 4601 Southwest	TPA 11:11	DEN 12:50	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1076 United	TPA 16:04	DEN 18:00	20%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 3933 Southwest	TPA 17:49	DEN 19:41	24%	6%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON