Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1906 at 07:38, 7%.

Safest bet that day B6 1906 TPA 07:38 → FLL 08:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4014 TPA 18:03 → FLL 19:04 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1906 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 07:38	FLL 08:43	7%	3%	1.3%	91%
B6 2076 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 13:49	FLL 15:02	17%	7%	1.9%	72%
MX 2424 Breeze	TPA 16:41	FLL 17:55	30%	9%	2.1%	no record
WN 4014 Southwest	TPA 18:03	FLL 19:04	44%	13%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON