tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:17 am at Tampa)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: B6 548 at 19:56, 25%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
B6 548 JetBlue Flight history → TPA 19:56 HPN 22:43 25% 10% 2.7% 77%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 2h 50m Detroit DTW 13:58 → HPN 15:54DL 4658 · flown by Endeavor 7h 24m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → HPN 14:35DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor 7h 05m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → TPA 13:53 → ORD 15:56AA 2920 3h 43m Chicago ORD 19:39 → HPN 22:59AA 3752 · flown by Envoy 9h 06m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:44 → ORD 08:49AA 354 3h 52m Chicago ORD 12:41 → HPN 15:59AA 4200 · flown by Envoy 9h 15m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:24 → HPN 17:56DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor 7h 56m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 09:28 → HPN 11:55DL 2973 5h 40m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 14:58 → ATL 16:34DL 1525 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616 7h 27m 95% 83%
AmericanDetails → TPA 09:22 → CLT 11:09AA 1704 3h 40m Charlotte CLT 14:49 → HPN 16:56AA 5606 · flown by PSA 7h 34m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON