Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 539 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 539 TPA 06:36 → LGA 09:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 1762 TPA 18:34 → LGA 21:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 539 American Flight history →	TPA 06:36	LGA 09:23	7%	3%	1.2%	87%
DL 2723 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:30	LGA 10:15	8%	2%	1.3%	88%
DL 2531 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:11	LGA 13:54	11%	3%	1.3%	90%
AA 880 American Flight history →	TPA 12:11	LGA 14:54	19%	5%	2.1%	83%
DL 2106 Delta Flight history →	TPA 16:25	LGA 19:26	19%	7%	2.1%	70%
DL 2195 Delta Flight history →	TPA 14:45	LGA 17:44	21%	7%	2.1%	70%
DL 1762 Delta	TPA 18:34	LGA 21:15	28%	9%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON