Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3037 at 13:50, 28%.

Safest bet today WN 3037 TPA 13:50 → PIT 16:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4191 TPA 18:55 → PIT 21:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3037 Southwest	TPA 13:50	PIT 16:20	28%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3951 Southwest	TPA 18:08	PIT 20:36	38%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 4191 Southwest	TPA 18:55	PIT 21:25	39%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON