tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3878 at 09:03, 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3878 Southwest TPA 09:03 SAT 10:53 17% 2% 0.3% no record
WN 3956 Southwest TPA 15:46 SAT 17:22 45% 11% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TPA 06:26 → HOU 07:42WN 4468 3h 11m Houston HOU 10:53 → SAT 11:57WN 194 6h 31m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 08m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 6h 10m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 15:58 → SAT 17:29DL 1465 7h 15m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 2h 33m Detroit DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458 8h 21m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 13:44 → ATL 15:20DL 1099 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 19:09 → SAT 20:37DL 2893 7h 53m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:00 → CLT 07:48AA 1225 2h 25m Charlotte CLT 10:13 → SAT 12:23AA 2889 7h 23m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → TPA 11:39 → IAH 13:07UA 1979 1h 36m Houston IAH 14:43 → SAT 15:54UA 2030 5h 15m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 14:19 → DFW 16:19AA 3112 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:22 → SAT 18:32AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 5h 13m 71% 59%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 50m Houston IAH 09:32 → SAT 10:43UA 1371 4h 28m 70% 59%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:32 → ATL 18:23DL 1167 46m Atlanta ATL 19:09 → SAT 20:37DL 2893 5h 05m 48% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON