tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 25 at 08:05, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 25 Southwest TPA 08:05 SDF 10:18 6% 2% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:00 → DFW 07:54AA 1369 1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 6h 48m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 5h 36m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 5h 42m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587 2h 57m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 7h 12m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → TPA 16:10 → EWR 18:57UA 1321 2h 28m Newark EWR 21:25 → SDF 00:00 +1UA 3609 · flown by Republic 7h 50m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126 6h 35m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 6h 23m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → TPA 08:36 → CLT 10:25AA 1704 2h 05m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → SDF 13:57AA 2816 5h 21m 97% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:41 → MIA 18:52AA 2798 2h 13m Miami MIA 21:05 → SDF 23:42AA 647 6h 01m 73% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON