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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 5618 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day OO 5618 TVC 06:03 → ORD 06:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5865 TVC 17:58 → ORD 18:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
OO 5618 SkyWest TVC 06:03 ORD 06:26 5% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 3713 United flown by Republic Flight history → TVC 08:33 ORD 08:59 6% 2% 0.6% 47%
MQ 4273 Envoy TVC 08:06 ORD 08:18 6% 2% 0.5% no record
OO 4900 SkyWest TVC 07:49 ORD 08:28 8% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 346 United TVC 10:21 ORD 10:43 10% 2% 0.6% no record
MQ 3493 Envoy TVC 11:56 ORD 12:08 13% 2% 0.7% no record
AA 4307 American flown by Envoy Flight history → TVC 14:43 ORD 14:54 16% 2% 0.7% 67%
OO 6209 SkyWest TVC 14:41 ORD 15:18 18% 5% 0.8% no record
OO 5839 SkyWest TVC 11:53 ORD 12:14 18% 3% 0.8% no record
OO 6298 SkyWest TVC 12:05 ORD 12:14 21% 4% 0.8% no record
OO 5592 SkyWest TVC 14:07 ORD 14:30 23% 5% 0.8% no record
OO 6297 SkyWest TVC 18:57 ORD 19:13 23% 5% 0.8% no record
AA 6293 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → TVC 20:14 ORD 20:36 24% 6% 0.8% 95%worse than usual
OO 5865 SkyWest TVC 17:58 ORD 18:20 26% 6% 0.7% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON