Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OH 5274 TYS 18:09 → PHL 20:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 6079 TYS 12:35 → PHL 14:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


OH 5274 PSA	TYS 18:09	PHL 20:09	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
OH 5215 PSA	TYS 11:54	PHL 13:08	11%	4%	1.0%	no record
PT 6079 Piedmont	TYS 12:35	PHL 14:40	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON