Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 51 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1409 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1409 DCA 06:14 → MDW 07:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2148 DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1409 Southwest	DCA 06:14	MDW 07:10	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 4596 Republic	BWI 05:58	ORD 07:10	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2691 United	IAD 06:04	ORD 07:23	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4094 Southwest	BWI 08:02	MDW 09:08	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 991 Southwest	BWI 10:37	MDW 11:40	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1793 United Flight history →	DCA 06:30	ORD 07:46	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 2277 United	BWI 06:19	ORD 07:32	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1775 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	ORD 09:36	6%	2%	0.5%	84%
UA 1252 United Flight history →	IAD 10:31	ORD 11:53	6%	2%	0.5%	92%
AA 523 American Flight history →	DCA 06:25	ORD 07:32	6%	2%	0.8%	78%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	DCA 08:25	ORD 09:43	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 2774 United Flight history →	DCA 09:30	ORD 10:50	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
UA 3932 United	IAD 23:26	ORD 00:44	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 11:16	ORD 12:20	7%	2%	0.6%	79%
YX 4541 Republic	DCA 22:16	ORD 23:20	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2252 Southwest	DCA 09:39	MDW 10:38	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 249 United	BWI 11:53	ORD 12:58	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2633 American Flight history →	DCA 07:44	ORD 09:03	8%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 2803 United	DCA 11:54	ORD 13:06	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4253 Envoy	BWI 14:09	ORD 15:17	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 522 American	DCA 11:17	ORD 12:24	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2284 American	DCA 13:27	ORD 14:34	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2749 United Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ORD 09:30	8%	3%	0.5%	86%
WN 992 Southwest	BWI 14:49	MDW 15:46	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 511 United Flight history →	DCA 13:00	ORD 14:18	8%	3%	0.7%	76%
AA 808 American Flight history →	DCA 11:25	ORD 12:32	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
YX 4758 Republic	BWI 18:21	ORD 19:35	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1221 American	DCA 14:51	ORD 15:55	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2331 United Flight history →	IAD 13:15	ORD 14:29	9%	3%	0.5%	81%
UA 1888 United Flight history →	DCA 14:00	ORD 15:18	9%	3%	0.7%	71%
AA 2023 American Flight history →	DCA 10:25	ORD 11:30	9%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 351 United Flight history →	DCA 09:18	ORD 10:20	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 4129 Southwest	DCA 12:02	MDW 13:02	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2158 United	IAD 15:46	ORD 16:57	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4002 Southwest	BWI 19:41	MDW 20:37	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 421 United	IAD 22:50	ORD 23:53	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1195 Southwest	BWI 17:52	MDW 18:53	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1325 United Flight history →	DCA 15:30	ORD 16:52	11%	3%	0.7%	66%
AA 1637 American Flight history →	DCA 15:50	ORD 16:56	11%	4%	0.7%	74%
WN 1411 Southwest	DCA 16:27	MDW 17:25	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1413 Southwest	DCA 18:44	MDW 19:39	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2679 Southwest	DCA 20:57	MDW 21:51	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1193 United Flight history →	DCA 19:10	ORD 20:32	14%	4%	0.7%	58%
AA 488 American	DCA 20:14	ORD 21:12	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1223 United	BWI 18:56	ORD 20:01	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 654 United Flight history →	DCA 17:05	ORD 18:30	16%	4%	0.7%	50%
UA 2497 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	ORD 18:50	18%	4%	0.5%	48%
AA 3148 American	DCA 18:31	ORD 19:38	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	18%	4%	0.5%	57%
AA 1189 American Flight history →	DCA 16:55	ORD 18:01	19%	5%	0.7%	61%
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 18:10	ORD 19:32	19%	5%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON