Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 26 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1898 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1898 BWI 05:59 → IAH 08:13 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OH 5411 DCA 20:38 → IAH 22:50 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1898 United Flight history →	BWI 05:59	IAH 08:13	3%	2%	0.5%	93%
WN 2783 Southwest	DCA 05:51	HOU 07:49	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1450 United Flight history →	DCA 06:00	IAH 08:13	5%	1%	0.6%	93%
UA 1747 United	IAD 06:09	IAH 08:37	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 951 Southwest	BWI 07:47	HOU 10:05	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1911 United	BWI 14:56	IAH 17:36	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 3920 United	IAD 09:12	IAH 11:14	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 2607 United	IAD 15:01	IAH 17:29	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAD 12:50	IAH 15:11	9%	3%	0.5%	84%
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	IAH 10:59	9%	2%	0.5%	89%
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:59	IAH 15:18	9%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 954 Southwest	BWI 14:05	HOU 16:05	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	11%	3%	0.6%	73%
OH 5496 PSA	DCA 07:40	IAH 10:05	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1379 Southwest	DCA 13:38	HOU 15:36	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 952 Southwest	BWI 11:06	HOU 13:10	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:27	13%	4%	0.6%	66%
WN 4640 Southwest	BWI 17:54	HOU 19:56	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1463 United Flight history →	IAD 22:19	IAH 00:20	13%	2%	0.6%	95%
OH 5591 PSA	DCA 13:49	IAH 16:16	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 2217 United Flight history →	IAD 17:59	IAH 20:25	14%	3%	0.5%	72%
WN 1542 Southwest	DCA 18:41	HOU 20:35	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3067 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 16:44	IAH 19:07	19%	5%	0.9%	61%
OH 5411 PSA	DCA 20:38	IAH 22:50	20%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON