Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 01:57, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1959 United Flight history →	ANC 00:13	DEN 06:54	7%	2%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → DEN 23:44DL 2851	10h 02m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	2h 08m Seattle	SEA 08:10 → DEN 12:02DL 1358	8h 32m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 13:50 → DEN 17:43DL 2543	9h 43m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	51m Seattle	SEA 07:19 → DEN 10:55AS 682	6h 58m	87%	69%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:10 → SEA 10:32AS 268	2h 13m Seattle	SEA 12:45 → DEN 16:20AS 304	8h 10m	99%	67%
Alaska Details →	ANC 07:03 → SEA 11:24AS 48	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 14:23 → DEN 17:58AS 602	8h 55m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON