tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 3840 at 07:31, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3840 SkyWest ASE 07:31 ATL 13:08 7% 5% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:46 → DEN 10:06UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Denver DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671 7h 44m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Denver DEN 10:08 → ATL 15:15UA 2806 5h 45m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:25 → DFW 10:36AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:02 → ATL 15:31AA 1008 6h 06m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45UA 5956 · flown by SkyWest 1h 35m Chicago ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:41UA 1398 7h 02m 93% 81%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:12 → ORD 11:04AA 6386 · flown by SkyWest 1h 44m Chicago ORD 12:48 → ATL 16:01AA 616 6h 49m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m Denver DEN 17:48 → ATL 22:57UA 1305 7h 50m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest 51m Los Angeles LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715 7h 56m 87% 75%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:22 → IAH 17:21UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest 51m Houston IAH 18:12 → ATL 21:26UA 2240 6h 04m 87% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON