Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Denver, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 406 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:09	BZN 13:11	8%	2%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	8h 48m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:27 → LAS 08:24WN 212	2h 03m Las Vegas	LAS 10:27 → BZN 13:31WN 716	8h 04m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:30DL 2946	7h 05m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	8h 23m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	3h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	8h 14m	99%	91%
United Details →	ATL 08:46 → DEN 10:14UA 340	3h 25m Denver	DEN 13:39 → BZN 15:27UA 513	8h 41m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest	10h 11m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:52 → MDW 08:56WN 232	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 10:01 → BZN 12:13WN 2691	6h 21m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON