Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 212 at 07:27 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 212 ATL 07:27 → LAS 08:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest F9 1115 ATL 21:01 → LAS 22:28 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 212 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:27	LAS 08:24	6%	1%	0.6%	73%
DL 777 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	LAS 09:31	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 945 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:55	LAS 11:00	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 466 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	LAS 12:02	9%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 659 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:24	LAS 14:49	10%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 919 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:28	LAS 19:50	11%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 722 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:34	LAS 19:42	12%	4%	0.6%	63%
DL 825 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:20	LAS 22:35	12%	4%	0.6%	67%
DL 711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	LAS 17:52	12%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 549 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:28	LAS 17:34	12%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 834 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:05	LAS 23:28	13%	4%	0.6%	94%
WN 215 Southwest	ATL 17:27	LAS 18:43	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 4891 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:45	LAS 10:14	17%	6%	0.9%	70%
F9 1115 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:01	LAS 22:28	22%	9%	1.2%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:08 → BNA 07:17WN 186	58m Nashville	BNA 08:15 → LAS 10:02WN 3506	5h 54m	96%	89%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:05 → DEN 08:07WN 204	56m Denver	DEN 09:03 → LAS 09:59WN 784	5h 54m	89%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON