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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 11:56, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 7h 56m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653 3h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 8h 47m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → ATL 07:27 → LAS 08:24WN 212 1h 46m Las Vegas LAS 10:10 → RNO 11:33WN 1225 7h 06m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830 1h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 6h 54m 98% 91%
SouthwestDetails → ATL 07:05 → DEN 08:07WN 204 1h 02m Denver DEN 09:09 → RNO 10:21WN 804 6h 16m 95% 90%
DeltaDetails → ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500 2h 29m Los Angeles LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest 8h 30m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 9h 10m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:27UA 1327 3h 43m Denver DEN 16:10 → RNO 17:36UA 1604 9h 26m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON