Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 904 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:16	SMF 11:00	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 682 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	SMF 22:53	9%	3%	0.7%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:27 → LAS 08:24WN 212	2h 19m Las Vegas	LAS 10:43 → SMF 12:15WN 819	7h 48m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	3h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	8h 44m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	3h 36m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → SMF 22:31DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest	10h 53m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:05 → DEN 08:07WN 204	2h 27m Denver	DEN 10:34 → SMF 11:59WN 743	7h 54m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342	8h 57m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	7h 01m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	2h 27m Seattle	SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	9h 49m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 44m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON