Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 826 ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest DL 2012 ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 826 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	SNA 22:25	11%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 329 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	SNA 12:31	14%	2%	0.6%	75%
DL 2012 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:30	SNA 19:00	16%	3%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:05 → DEN 08:07WN 204	55m Denver	DEN 09:02 → SNA 10:24WN 4771	6h 19m	91%	84%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:27 → LAS 08:24WN 212	56m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → SNA 10:26WN 3529	5h 59m	93%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON