Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2986 at 00:16 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 2986 OAK 00:16 → MDW 06:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2317 SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2986 Southwest	OAK 00:16	MDW 06:28	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 2614 American Flight history →	SFO 06:04	ORD 12:31	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 2343 United	SFO 05:01	ORD 11:21	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2091 United Flight history →	SFO 06:05	ORD 12:41	5%	1%	0.5%	93%
UA 2740 United	SJC 06:23	ORD 12:36	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3816 Southwest	OAK 10:39	MDW 16:44	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 3250 American Flight history →	SFO 07:07	ORD 13:33	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 2847 United	SFO 00:33	ORD 06:44	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1958 United Flight history →	SFO 18:24	ORD 00:49	8%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 208 Southwest	SJC 09:59	MDW 16:03	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1568 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	ORD 14:50	9%	2%	0.5%	85%
AA 814 American	SFO 08:59	ORD 15:14	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2817 American	SFO 17:18	ORD 23:37	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1887 United	SFO 16:34	ORD 22:52	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1650 United	SJC 14:02	ORD 20:24	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 3940 United	SFO 17:12	ORD 23:03	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2642 American	SFO 15:04	ORD 21:26	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 957 Southwest	SFO 10:34	MDW 16:42	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2885 American	SFO 10:27	ORD 16:49	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2358 American	SFO 13:29	ORD 19:50	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1147 United	SFO 15:02	ORD 21:16	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1922 United	SFO 13:55	ORD 20:11	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2827 United	SFO 10:19	ORD 16:33	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2317 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	ORD 18:35	22%	5%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON