Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via LaGuardia, leaving 05:09, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BGR 05:09 → LGA 06:56DL 5137 · flown by Endeavor	2h 04m New York	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	6h 23m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BGR 11:56 → LGA 13:33DL 5254 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m New York	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	8h 28m	99%	88%
American Details →	BGR 06:31 → ORD 08:18AA 3683 · flown by Envoy	1h 46m Chicago	ORD 10:04 → ATL 13:17AA 2910	6h 46m	98%	84%
United Details →	BGR 12:05 → EWR 13:53UA 4166 · flown by GoJet	2h 39m Newark	EWR 16:32 → ATL 18:49UA 2304	6h 44m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	BGR 16:05 → JFK 17:39DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor	1h 21m New York	JFK 19:00 → ATL 22:11DL 962	6h 06m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	BGR 16:59 → LGA 18:36DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor	1h 54m New York	LGA 20:30 → ATL 23:43DL 975	6h 44m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON