Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4008 BHM 06:22 → IAH 08:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 4013 BHM 17:20 → IAH 19:24 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4008 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	BHM 06:22	IAH 08:15	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
YV 4006 Mesa	BHM 09:02	IAH 11:09	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 4822 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	BHM 11:04	IAH 13:15	13%	2%	0.8%	90%
UA 3991 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	BHM 15:15	IAH 17:24	15%	5%	0.8%	74%
UA 4013 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	BHM 17:20	IAH 19:24	15%	6%	0.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON