Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3498 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 12:35	ORD 16:36	15%	2%	0.6%	67%
SY 8283 Sun Country	BIL 13:33	ORD 17:15	18%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Denver	DEN 08:05 → ORD 11:48UA 2430	5h 48m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00DL 2247	5h 40m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BIL 06:24 → MSP 09:27DL 2254	3h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533	7h 41m	99%	89%
United Details →	BIL 06:57 → DEN 08:34UA 372	2h 41m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	6h 58m	99%	89%
American Details →	BIL 13:20 → DFW 17:10AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:37 → ORD 22:12AA 3790 · flown by Envoy	7h 52m	99%	87%
American Details →	BIL 06:00 → DFW 09:55AA 3746 · flown by Envoy	3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	8h 51m	100%	86%
United Details →	BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478	2h 55m Denver	DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258	7h 24m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BIL 11:50 → SLC 13:22DL 4038 · flown by SkyWest	3h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	8h 39m	100%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON