tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2966 Southwest BNA 12:46 SRQ 15:59 14% 4% 1.3% no record
WN 1307 Southwest BNA 17:08 SRQ 20:07 18% 4% 2.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 56m Atlanta ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196 3h 42m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → SRQ 12:27DL 3104 5h 09m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SRQ 15:23DL 3115 6h 51m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:55DL 3109 6h 17m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 1h 29m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 6h 32m 97% 82%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 13:28 → MCO 16:26WN 564 2h 09m Orlando MCO 18:35 → SRQ 19:31WN 3476 5h 03m 100% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON