Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 18%, against 5% on a calm day. Safest: WN 761 at 06:47, 6%.

Safest bet that day WN 761 BUF 06:47 → MCO 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 141 BUF 14:39 → MCO 17:16 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Weather 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 761 Southwest	BUF 06:47	MCO 09:15	6%	1%	1.0%	no record
B6 85 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 08:42	MCO 11:22	13%	4%	2.2%	85%
WN 141 Southwest	BUF 14:39	MCO 17:16	35%	8%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON