Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2758 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2758 MDW 06:24 → MCO 09:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3176 ORD 18:45 → MCO 22:40 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2758 Southwest	MDW 06:24	MCO 09:49	4%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 636 Southwest	MDW 08:28	MCO 11:57	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2764 Southwest	MDW 09:36	MCO 13:05	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 376 Southwest	MDW 12:18	MCO 15:46	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 2280 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	MCO 11:15	13%	4%	1.0%	89%
WN 4933 Southwest	MDW 15:36	MCO 19:04	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 491 Southwest	MDW 18:21	MCO 21:48	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MCO 15:03	16%	5%	0.9%	75%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	ORD 09:12	MCO 13:13	17%	5%	1.0%	85%
AA 1564 American	ORD 07:12	MCO 10:55	17%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 3293 American	ORD 10:34	MCO 14:26	21%	6%	1.5%	no record
F9 3044 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:13	MCO 21:25	22%	12%	5.7%	73%
UA 2654 United	ORD 14:46	MCO 18:35	22%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1929 United	ORD 15:29	MCO 19:05	24%	10%	0.9%	no record
UA 617 United	ORD 20:17	MCO 23:56	24%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 486 American Flight history →	ORD 12:02	MCO 15:55	25%	7%	1.4%	46%
UA 2620 United	ORD 13:07	MCO 16:52	26%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 1247 American Flight history →	ORD 15:08	MCO 19:05	26%	9%	1.6%	62%
UA 2294 United	ORD 19:41	MCO 23:15	28%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 3176 American Flight history →	ORD 18:45	MCO 22:40	32%	15%	4.5%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON