tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 10:14 AVL 11:58 18% 6% 0.8% 79%
OH 5053 PSA DCA 17:49 AVL 19:29 24% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 13:53 → AVL 15:02DL 3099 6h 02m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 09:58 → AVL 11:08DL 3059 5h 08m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182 5h 12m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 20:28 → AVL 21:38DL 3116 5h 38m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:10 → AVL 17:20DL 3101 4h 53m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518 3h 35m Charlotte CLT 13:48 → AVL 14:44AA 5588 · flown by PSA 6h 14m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:17 → CLT 16:52AA 2040 2h 34m Charlotte CLT 19:26 → AVL 20:20AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont 5h 03m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → DCA 13:30 → LGA 14:53DL 5747 · flown by Republic 1h 44m New York LGA 16:37 → AVL 18:29DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor 4h 59m 92% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON