tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5747 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

YX 5747 · DCA → LGA

departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 2:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 118h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Wednesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
36% chance · ±14 pts −1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.6d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to LGA?

  1. On time or early
    60%
  2. 15–30 min late
    8%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    7%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    16%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    4%
  6. Cancelled
    5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.