Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 5843 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–46%.

Safest bet that day YX 5843 DCA 06:16 → LGA 07:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5752 DCA 19:40 → LGA 21:04 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5843 Republic	DCA 06:16	LGA 07:40	6%	2%	2.5%	no record
AA 4403 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 07:15	LGA 08:40	7%	3%	2.4%	90%
DL 5772 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:15	LGA 09:33	20%	4%	2.5%	81%
YX 4366 Republic	DCA 10:43	LGA 12:16	20%	6%	3.2%	no record
YX 4546 Republic	DCA 11:42	LGA 13:04	23%	11%	3.8%	no record
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:36	LGA 00:00	26%	8%	3.7%	67%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:00	LGA 12:09	28%	8%	3.5%	75%
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:59	LGA 15:31	33%	18%	4.1%	62%
YX 4569 Republic	DCA 15:14	LGA 16:47	36%	16%	3.3%	no record
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:30	LGA 14:53	36%	21%	5.2%	67%
YX 4636 Republic	DCA 17:22	LGA 18:56	38%	21%	4.8%	no record
YX 4583 Republic	DCA 18:55	LGA 20:18	43%	24%	4.6%	no record
DL 5768 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:40	LGA 21:59	44%	21%	4.4%	54%
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:40	LGA 18:59	44%	26%	5.6%	51%
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:40	LGA 21:04	46%	27%	5.5%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON