Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4415 at 14:42 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–24%.

Safest bet that day YX 4415 DCA 14:42 → MSN 16:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5373 DCA 22:00 → MSN 23:19 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4415 Republic	DCA 14:42	MSN 16:12	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5645 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:20	MSN 16:39	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 5221 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:28	MSN 11:48	14%	5%	1.2%	73%
AA 5373 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:00	MSN 23:19	24%	13%	1.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON