Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 2089 at 17:39, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2089 United	DEN 17:39	ATW 20:55	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945	7h 21m	98%	89%
American Details →	DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420	1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	6h 30m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:59 → DTW 19:49DL 1648	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	5h 38m	91%	80%
United Details →	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 18:13 → ATW 19:27UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest	7h 12m	99%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON