Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 516 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 516 DEN 07:03 → PHL 12:53 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4971 DEN 15:34 → PHL 21:10 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 516 American Flight history →	DEN 07:03	PHL 12:53	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	PHL 15:12	13%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 2787 United	DEN 13:55	PHL 19:39	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2491 American Flight history →	DEN 13:07	PHL 19:05	18%	7%	0.7%	73%
UA 1510 United Flight history →	DEN 17:54	PHL 23:30	18%	5%	0.6%	58%
WN 1624 Southwest	DEN 18:48	PHL 00:32	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 811 American	DEN 10:17	PHL 16:05	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1622 Southwest	DEN 10:57	PHL 16:33	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4971 Southwest	DEN 15:34	PHL 21:10	21%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON