tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3086 Southwest DSM 12:26 LAS 13:39 5% 2% 0.5% no record
G4 1625 Allegiant DSM 14:40 LAS 16:03 7% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:50DL 919 10h 20m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982 3h 06m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 53m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DSM 07:06 → MSP 08:20DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 20m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → DSM 17:49 → MSP 19:02DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 21:53 → LAS 23:23DL 1442 7h 34m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 21m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521 3h 12m Denver DEN 13:32 → LAS 14:41UA 493 7h 27m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → DSM 08:01 → ORD 09:27UA 2668 1h 42m Chicago ORD 11:09 → LAS 13:08UA 1803 7h 07m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:44 → MSP 15:57DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 3h 02m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246 7h 36m 98% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON