tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3484 Republic ELP 08:43 ORD 13:09 6% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 4006 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ELP 07:42 ORD 12:05 6% 3% 0.6% 100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 8h 28m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:47 → IAH 09:05UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 2h 50m Houston IAH 11:55 → ORD 14:40UA 1691 7h 53m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 2h 22m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 6h 55m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477 7h 14m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 7h 46m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728 3h 44m Denver DEN 20:22 → ORD 23:45UA 377 8h 13m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest 2h 18m Los Angeles LAX 09:32 → ORD 15:49AA 2998 8h 48m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → ELP 09:59 → DFW 12:54AA 1365 3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:46 → ORD 19:35AA 1290 8h 36m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON