Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3636 Envoy	EUG 06:55	PHX 09:43	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3747 Envoy	EUG 13:49	PHX 16:34	15%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496	6h 48m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	6h 12m	99%	88%
United Details →	EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241	2h 48m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	7h 25m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447	5h 48m	94%	81%
Alaska Details →	EUG 15:55 → PDX 16:56AS 3041 · flown by SkyWest	53m Portland	PDX 17:49 → PHX 20:32AS 723	4h 37m	85%	71%
Alaska Details →	EUG 13:15 → SEA 14:31AS 2188 · flown by Horizon	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 16:46 → PHX 19:34AS 746	6h 19m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	47m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419	5h 05m	81%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON