Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 788 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 788 EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1863 EWR 19:06 → MCO 21:37 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	5%	2%	0.8%	96%
B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 05:55	MCO 08:38	5%	2%	1.4%	90%
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:47	MCO 10:44	7%	3%	0.9%	98%
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:52	MCO 08:35	8%	3%	1.3%	83%
UA 486 United	EWR 09:09	MCO 11:57	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	12%	4%	0.9%	87%
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	13%	4%	0.8%	76%
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 13:33	MCO 16:18	19%	7%	1.7%	75%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 14:05	MCO 17:03	19%	6%	0.9%	81%
UA 2345 United	EWR 14:16	MCO 17:12	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1268 United Flight history →	EWR 15:25	MCO 18:19	20%	8%	1.0%	79%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	MCO 23:32	23%	11%	0.8%	73%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 18:12	MCO 20:39	26%	12%	1.0%	77%
UA 1863 United	EWR 19:06	MCO 21:37	28%	12%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON