Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 3712 Republic	EWR 09:01	MSN 10:53	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
UA 3620 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:00	MSN 20:40	12%	3%	1.2%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 09:30 → BOS 10:54DL 5764 · flown by Republic	2h 14m Boston	BOS 13:08 → MSN 15:03DL 5603 · flown by Republic	6h 33m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 04m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	3h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 17:02 → MSN 18:14DL 5331 · flown by Endeavor	7h 27m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:21 → MSN 16:33DL 2599	7h 02m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 13:00 → DTW 14:58DL 2577	1h 59m Detroit	DTW 16:57 → MSN 17:20DL 5245 · flown by Endeavor	5h 20m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	5h 22m	97%	87%
American Details →	EWR 06:32 → ORD 07:59AA 3027	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 11:39 → MSN 12:44AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest	7h 12m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	8h 17m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON