Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 724 FAI 13:50 → ANC 15:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest QX 2036 FAI 05:09 → ANC 06:27 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 724 Alaska	FAI 13:50	ANC 15:02	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
AS 204 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 10:01	ANC 11:14	15%	2%	0.8%	98%worse than usual
AS 2050 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	FAI 18:20	ANC 19:38	16%	4%	1.8%	100%worse than usual
AS 272 Alaska	FAI 07:11	ANC 08:24	17%	2%	0.8%	no record
QX 2110 Horizon	FAI 14:44	ANC 16:02	18%	3%	1.9%	no record
QX 2036 Horizon	FAI 05:09	ANC 06:27	20%	3%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON