tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 1237 at 05:20, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1237 Delta Flight history → FSD 05:20 ATL 08:53 6% 3% 0.7% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31UA 1857 3h 10m Chicago ORD 12:41 → ATL 15:42UA 2779 7h 07m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5701 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Denver DEN 10:08 → ATL 15:15UA 2806 8h 15m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → FSD 07:08 → ORD 09:05AA 4977 · flown by SkyWest 3h 43m Chicago ORD 12:48 → ATL 16:01AA 616 7h 53m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → FSD 13:18 → DEN 14:10UA 5492 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m Denver DEN 17:48 → ATL 22:57UA 1305 8h 39m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → FSD 11:35 → DEN 12:25UA 5319 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Denver DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671 5h 55m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → FSD 12:42 → DFW 15:00AA 2872 2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:07 → ATL 20:35AA 2403 6h 53m 96% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON