Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 09:39, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 09:39 → SEA 18:24AS 122	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 20:53 → ANC 23:37AS 228	11h 58m	96%	75%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:44AS 267	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 22:59 → ANC 01:43 +1AS 205	12h 40m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:57 → SEA 15:46AS 90	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 18:56 → ANC 21:40AS 1438	12h 43m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:57 → SEA 15:46AS 90	46m Seattle	SEA 16:32 → ANC 19:02AS 9560	10h 05m	70%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON