Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops today


DL 309 Delta Flight history →	HNL 15:15	ATL 06:00	16%	6%	0.9%	81%
DL 398 Delta	HNL 15:31	ATL 06:02	16%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:35 → SFO 17:57UA 1176	3h 24m San Francisco	SFO 21:21 → ATL 05:12 +1UA 233	13h 37m	99%	89%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:04 → SEA 19:45AS 267	3h 57m Seattle	SEA 23:42 → ATL 07:31 +1AS 464	14h 27m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 22:40 → ATL 06:10 +1DL 899	11h 35m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	HNL 13:07 → SEA 22:05DL 359	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 23:14 → ATL 07:11 +1DL 567	12h 04m	91%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON