Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 12:50, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops today


DL 650 Delta Flight history →	HNL 15:50	JFK 07:30	11%	5%	1.3%	92%
AS 830 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:09	JFK 06:55	27%	5%	1.0%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 11:04 → SEA 19:45AS 267	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	14h 34m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON