Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 31 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1865 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1865 HNL 05:45 → OGG 06:41 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1156 HNL 15:40 → OGG 16:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1865 Southwest	HNL 05:45	OGG 06:41	1%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1975 Southwest	HNL 05:49	OGG 06:44	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1705 Southwest	HNL 09:53	OGG 10:49	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1978 Southwest	HNL 07:59	OGG 08:54	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1866 Southwest	HNL 08:10	OGG 09:06	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1523 Southwest	HNL 09:49	OGG 10:44	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1016 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	OGG 06:40	8%	1%	0.9%	94%
WN 1688 Southwest	HNL 17:20	OGG 18:16	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1551 Southwest	HNL 20:29	OGG 21:25	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1872 Southwest	HNL 15:48	OGG 16:44	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1871 Southwest	HNL 14:10	OGG 15:06	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1870 Southwest	HNL 12:38	OGG 13:34	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1046 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:02	OGG 08:43	16%	1%	0.9%	95%worse than usual
AS 1036 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:26	OGG 08:06	17%	2%	0.9%	86%
AS 1056 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:16	OGG 10:10	19%	2%	0.9%	91%
AS 1066 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:22	OGG 11:11	19%	2%	0.9%	79%
AS 1416 Alaska	HNL 08:24	OGG 09:17	22%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1176 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:45	OGG 17:34	25%	5%	0.9%	82%
AS 1086 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:24	OGG 12:07	25%	3%	0.9%	75%
AS 1216 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:36	OGG 20:25	27%	4%	0.8%	73%
AS 1226 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:01	OGG 21:50	28%	4%	0.9%	81%
AS 1186 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:08	OGG 17:57	28%	4%	0.9%	78%
AS 1196 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:43	OGG 18:32	30%	4%	0.9%	85%worse than usual
AS 1106 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:31	OGG 13:15	30%	4%	0.9%	70%
AS 1136 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:36	OGG 15:25	30%	5%	0.9%	65%
AS 1166 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:21	OGG 17:10	30%	5%	0.9%	72%
AS 1126 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:37	OGG 14:26	33%	4%	0.9%	72%
AS 1116 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:01	OGG 13:45	33%	5%	0.9%	65%
AS 1146 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:06	OGG 15:55	33%	5%	0.9%	71%
9X 8510 Southern Airways Express	HNL 14:52	OGG 15:49	33%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 1156 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:40	OGG 16:29	33%	5%	0.9%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON