Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1797 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1797 IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1948 HOU 17:03 → LGA 21:41 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1797 United Flight history →	IAH 06:01	EWR 10:36	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 2445 Southwest	HOU 07:09	LGA 11:43	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1886 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	EWR 11:59	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1417 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:33	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1697 United Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:29	9%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 1143 United	IAH 08:05	LGA 12:48	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1449 Delta	IAH 11:00	LGA 15:43	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1995 Southwest	HOU 10:54	LGA 15:31	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1444 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	EWR 00:37	13%	4%	0.6%	76%
UA 2402 United Flight history →	IAH 09:51	EWR 14:30	14%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	15%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	16%	5%	0.6%	72%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:46	EWR 18:30	16%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 678 United Flight history →	IAH 09:47	LGA 14:29	17%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 1438 Delta	IAH 18:37	LGA 23:21	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:58	JFK 16:38	18%	6%	0.8%	50%
DL 1368 Delta	IAH 14:00	LGA 18:43	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 20:19	EWR 00:52	20%	4%	0.6%	64%
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	20%	5%	0.6%	66%
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:18	EWR 23:00	20%	5%	0.7%	66%
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	EWR 19:35	24%	6%	0.6%	59%
UA 2495 United	IAH 17:19	LGA 22:06	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:17	JFK 23:00	25%	8%	0.8%	45%
UA 775 United	IAH 14:30	LGA 19:08	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1773 Southwest	HOU 14:44	LGA 19:21	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2682 United Flight history →	IAH 18:28	LGA 23:07	26%	5%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	27%	6%	0.6%	61%
WN 1948 Southwest	HOU 17:03	LGA 21:41	28%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON